Younger than John McCain

I'm younger than John McCain. A lot younger.

I was wondering why Betfair still has odds on "Republican Nominee". You shouldn't be able to make any money on it any more, right? John McCain has it all sewn up?

Well, yes, the politics is all sewn up. However, the Betfair market seems to think there is a 5% chance that McCain won't be the Republican candidate. There can only really be one reason for this: the risk that he will be too ill to stand, or possibly dead.

That seemed unlikely to me. But then I had a look at thingsyoungerthanjohnmccain.com which is dedicated to listing things which are younger than John McCain. Does America want a President older than the Golden Gate Bridge or the State of Hawaii leading it through the 21st century?

My own contribution is the great novel "Of Mice and Men", which was first published in 1937, one year after Sen. McCain. Can you think of anything else?

Law Enforcement Update

For this evening, 9th May 2008

Number of people drinking on tube and buses: Nil. (No change)
Number of people offering to sell "skunks" outside Brixton Station: About a dozen. (No change).
Number of police, support officers, traffic wardens et al appearing to care about either of these things: Nil. (No change).

Boris and Drugs

Since the Mayoral result has been announced, I've had to wait much longer for the 159 next to Portcullis House. I have had to resort to taking the much more frequent and quieter 3 and changing at Brixton. I hold Boris personally responsible for this and demand he makes the 159 run more than once every 15 minutes at peak times, i.e. whenever I happen to want one.

I don't quite know what to make of banning drinking on public transport. It might be a good idea. However, most people who are drunk on public transport in London have already done their drinking....... and if you banned drunk people, then the night bus network might go bankrupt. (Taxis would love it, but there would be much more crime and anti-social behaviour on taxi ranks).

Anyway. Drugs. It's been clear for a while now that Labour have been building up to reclassifying cannabis as Class B. However, this will achieve absolutely nothing....

Foolhardy call from ConHome

ConservativeHome have "called" the London Mayor election for Boris...

Obviously, now they've done this, I want Boris to lose. And I would probably be thinking that even if I had voted for him second, rather than a teddybear.

The prediction is probably right. I say that based on the betting markets and the most recent opinion polls. However, ConHome say they are "calling" it based on (mainly Conservative) reports of canvass figures and turnouts. Which is a barking thing to do.

The Mayor election will go down to second preferences, which is why we have seen such comic attempts by both sides to try to get Brian Paddick to say who he's putting second... (Ken Livingstone agrees with 90% of Lib Dem policies and always tells people to vote for Lib Dem MPs? I mean, come ON).

There is simply no way that a canvasser is going to get accurate information on someone's second preference in an election like Mayor. Canvass figures are more an art than a science in all cases; a volunteer with a blue rosette is very unlikely to get an unbiased answer about how someone is actually going to vote, and this is even more so with something peripheral like a second preference.

Also bear in mind that there are plenty of parts of London where Conservative organisation is negligible. These are often the parts of London where Lib Dems and Labour fight it out, and where quite a lot of Paddick first preferences will be concentrated. Turnout has been high in Lambeth, where I am, and where the Conservatives scarcely exist. Good news for Ken? Perhaps, perhaps not; but that isn't a question which ConHome's sources will have any insight into...

So if ConservativeHome are right, they are right for the wrong reasons. And if they're wrong, then it will take years for the blogosphere to stop laughing at them.

PS. I don't think very much of PoliticsHome's benchmarks, either, but that's another story...

London Mayor: The Awards

My London Mayor candidates booklet dropped through my door this morning. Since I am unwell, off work and campaigning (throwing up on voters probably won't win Brian Paddick or Caroline Pidgeon any more votes), here are my awards on the candidates. These are based purely on the manifesto booklet.

Worst Hair
Winner: Matt O'Connor (Eng Dem)
Runner-Up: Lindsey German (Left List)

Least Sincere Smile
Winner: Gerard Batten (UKIP)
Runner-Up: Sian Berry (Green)

Candidate who Strangled His Wife During Preparation of Manifesto
Winner: Alan Craig (Christian Choice), judging by the photo on the left-hand-side
Runner-Up: Probably Matt O'Connor since he's from Fathers for Justice

Candidate trying to be fairest to the others
Winner: Alan Craig. He will "end the (alleged) corruption at City Hall"

Token Ethnic Minority Award
Winner: Samantha Winter. "I'm voting BNP because I'm Irish".
Runner-Up: "Some Left List Supporters" who are the only black or brown faces in the booklet.

Most Expensively-Shot Portait
Winner: Ken Livingstone (Labour)
Runner-Up: Sian Berry

Least Expensively-Shot Portait
Winner: Brian Paddick (Lib Dem)
Runner-Up: Lindsey German

I will be voting Brian Paddick first. I am going to cast my second preference for Brian the Teddybear. I would rather have a piece of campaign merchandise as Mayor than Ken Livingstone or Boris Johnson....

Hague seen as Thatcher's natural successor....

How fickle are fame, politics and history?

According to YouGov (report), William Hague is Margaret Thatcher's natural successor and the most impressive politician in the Conservative Party today. He narrowly beats David Cameron. Michael Howard was not included - perhaps because he is semi-retired - and nor was Iain Duncan Smith.

Quite a turnaround for someone who was generally regarded as a useless failure seven years ago.

Lib Dem Voice have highlighted the continuing regard for Margaret Thatcher. It's interesting that Labour voters prefer both Thatcher and Churchill (second term only) to either Wilson or Attlee. Surely Attlee should be scoring much higher amongst Labour types?

It's also very interesting that over-55s rate Harold Wilson in joint second place. This group, of course, includes just about everyone old enough to remember Wilson in office. I suspect this indicates a 'recency bias' in the survey: there is a tendency for people to only vote for Prime Ministers they can remember. I doubt there are many 70+-year-olds on the YouGov panel, and I suspect this explains the very poor showing for Attlee amongst Labour voters.

Old Tory Posters on the BBC website

Just spotted these old Tory posters on the BBC website.

Great stuff. Not knowing the context very well, I can't tell if the early posters with Tories slaying reptilian socialists would have worked or not. I suspect probably not. With equal ignorance I suspect the "Dearer Beer" poster - an attack on Lloyd George on distinctly populist, opportunistic and even left-wing grounds - hit the mark, even if it made no difference at all to the election...